Broncos vs Raiders

Broncos vs. Raiders odds, line: Monday Night Football picks, predictions from model on 78-49 run SportsLine’s advanced computer model simulated Monday’s Raiders vs. Broncos game 10,000 times.

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The Oakland Raiders and Denver Broncos put a cap on Week 1 of the 2019 NFL schedule when they face off in the second half of a Monday Night Football doubleheader. Kickoff from Oakland is at 10:20 p.m. ET between the AFC West rivals. Denver will have a decidedly new look, as former Chicago Bears defensive coordinator Vic Fangio takes over as head coach in Denver, and Super Bowl champion quarterback Joe Flacco takes charge under center after 11 seasons in Baltimore.

The Raiders released star wide receiver Antonio Brown on Saturday, but spent a first-round pick on Josh Jacobs at running back. The latest Broncos vs. Raiders odds list Denver as a 2.5-point favorite, a five-point swing after Oakland opened at -2.5, The over-under for total points scored is 42.5. These teams have split the last four meetings, each winning twice at home, so before you make any Broncos vs. Raiders picks and Monday Night Football predictions, see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It nailed its top-rated NFL picks in 2018-19, finishing the season on a sizzling 16-6 run. For the year, it went 30-15 on all top-rated picks (20-8 against the spread), extending its two-year run to a strong 78-49.

The model ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch for the third straight year on straight-up NFL picks and beat over 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has honed in on Raiders vs. Broncos. We can tell you it’s leaning over, and it also says side of the spread hits in more than 50 percent of simulations. That pick is available only at SportsLine.

The model has factored in the changes made to an Oakland offense that ranked 23rd in yards and 28th in scoring at just 18.1 points per game. Brown promptly signed with the New England Patriots after being released on Sunday, but the team still has Jacobs, former Chargers wideout Tyrell Williams, and promising rookie Hunter Renfrow. Head coach Jon Gruden and company have been hyping tight end Darren Waller all off-season.

The Broncos haven’t covered on Monday Night Football in their last four tries, while the Raiders have covered in five of the last six meetings at home with Denver.

But just because Oakland is at home doesn’t mean it will cover the Broncos vs. Raiders spread on Monday Night Football.

The model knows Denver had several issues, but addressed them in the off-season. First, a formerly formidable Broncos defense that was among the league’s best in 2017 dropped all the way to 22nd last year with nearly the same personnel. The team brought in a new coach in Fangio, whose track record as a defensive guru spanning three decades brought him to the Mile High City.

Flacco, meanwhile, should boost an offense that ranked just 24th in scoring. Against Oakland, however, the key may be the running of Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman. The two backs combined for 1,558 yards and 12 touchdowns last season, and Oakland ranked 30th against the run a year ago.